[Salon] The Bottom Line: Special Reconciliation Edition



May 21

Breaking Down the One Big Beautiful Bill

The House of Representatives’ Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 reconciliation bill – titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (OBBBA) – would add $2.5 trillion to primary deficits over the coming decade, adding $3.1 trillion to the debt including interest. If its temporary provisions are extended without offsets, we estimate it would add $5.1 trillion to the debt including interest.


The table below is a comprehensive tally of each provision included in the respective committee bills that make up the OBBBA, along with a deficit impact estimate from the Congressional Budget Office. This table will be updated if additional changes are made.

Read the analysis.

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Further SALT Cap Relief Only Benefits High Earners

Raising the current $10,000 cap on the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction would primarily benefit high earners. Further increasing the cap above the House reconciliation bill proposal – a $30,000 cap for households making less than $400,000 – would almost exclusively benefit high earners.


Other analyses have shown that raising the SALT cap would primarily benefit the rich nationwide. We show that even in a high tax area, raising the cap above $30,000 and raising or removing the income limit would deliver nearly all the tax cuts to households making $400,000 or more, with the benefit rising with income. In Washington, DC, the deal announced by House leadership to raise the cap to $40,000 and to slowly phase it out above $500,000 in income would deliver a nearly $10,000 tax cut to our illustrative household making $500,000 and a $7,000 tax cut to a household making $600,000 relative to extending the $10,000 cap.

Read the analysis.

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CBO's First Score of House Reconciliation

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its first comprehensive estimate of the House’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 reconciliation bill – the One Big Beautiful Bill Act – finding that before accounting for interactions, the bill would add $2.3 trillion to deficits over the next decade. Incorporating our estimates of interactions and the adjustments announced by House leadership Monday, we estimate the bill would add $3.1 trillion to the debt as written.

Read the analysis.

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More:

Energy & Commerce Draft Would Help Limit Medicaid Gaming

Permanent Ways & Means Bill Could Add $5.3 Trillion to Deficits

FY 2025 Reconciliation Bill Tally

Adding Up the House Reconciliation Bill

Further SALT Relief Would Be a Mistake

House Reconciliation Bill Would Massively Increase Near-Term Deficits

2025 Reconciliation Resources

America's Truss Moment?

Maya MacGuineas on CBS News' "America Decides"

Reconciliation Bill Sets up $4.8 Trillion Fiscal Cliff in 2028

Moody's Downgrade Highlights Seriousness of Fiscal Situation

2025 Reconciliation Tracker

Changes Move Reconciliation Bill in the Wrong Fiscal Direction

Interest Costs Could Explode from High Rates and More Debt

House Bill would Put 3% Deficit Far Out of Reach

Senate Unanimously Agrees to Another Tax Giveaway

Stop Making Reconciliation Worse







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